RUDN University mathematicians built a model of COVID-19 spreading based on two regression models. The mathematicians divided the countries into three groups, depending on the spreading rate and on the climatic conditions, and found a suitable mathematical approximation for each of them.
Based on the model, the mathematicians predicted the subsequent waves. The forecast was accurate in countries where mass vaccination was not introduced. The results are published in Mathematics.
The epidemy spreading rate within the country depends, among other things, on the climatic conditions: temperature, humidity, winds. For example, in the cold season, dry air dries the nasal mucus out which acts as a first line of defence to the virus. Therefore, a person becomes infected faster. High temperature, on the contrary, prevents the virus from surviving. [Read more…] about RUDN mathematician builds a COVID-19 spread model – it shows how vaccination affects pandemic